Memo – Case Study Example
Memorandum April 3, 2009 Pat Riley, President and General Manager, Miami Heat General manager Miami Heat
Subject: Summary of the article The Hot Hand: A new Approach to an Old “Fallacy”
The article authored by Andrew Bocskocsky, John Ezekowitz and Carolyne Stein that was published by Harvard University challenged the concept that, in basketball, the hot hand fallacy assumes that the selection of shots is reliant of the players-perceived coldness or hotness. The Hot Hand is a local representation of the tendency of humans to be led astray when faced with randomness. The authors of the article Andrew Bocskocsky, John Ezekowitz and Carolyne Stein described a comprehensive model of shot difficulty by making use relevant initial conditions.
The article attempts to provide answers to two questions: Firstly, if both the offensive and defensive players believe in the Hot Hand, as evidenced by their playing decisions? And secondly, if they control the shot difficulty, does the Hot Hand effect emerge? (Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz and Stein, p.2).
The article uses the comprehensive model of the shot difficulty to show that those players, who have superseded their expectations over the recently taken shots shooting from significantly longer distances, face tighter defense, have a higher probability of taking more difficult shots, as well as taking their team’s next shot.
They also reported that in relation to hot hand itself, they argued that players who are actually outperforming will continue to do the same, although it is reliant on the difficulty of their present shot. The article by Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz and Stein estimated a range of 1.2 to 2.4 percent in increased probability of making a shot in relation to the Hot Hand effect.
However, evidence has shown that the players themselves believe in the Hot Hand and do not select shots at random. Besides, hot players have a higher likelihood of taking the team’s next shot thus not selecting shots independently. Therefore, assessing of the Hot Hand solely on absolute outperformance seems flawed.
Bocskocsky, Andrew, John Ezekowitz and Carolyne Stein. "The Hot Hand: A New Approach to the Old Fallacy." 8th Annual MIT SLOAN Sports Analysts Conference. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 2014. 1-10.