Wk3_INTL304_Forum – Coursework Example
Issues of Deception and Denial Issues of Deception and Denial Presently, the intelligence sector has focused greatly on intelligence analysis through complexity science. Intelligence challenges are generally multi-faceted and dynamic. This paper illustrates a simple qualitative approach of analyzing the denial and deception complexities. Denial and deception entails major continuous problems, which are very effective. They succeed due to two reasons. First, our analytic systems do not produce appropriate hypothesis. Secondly, the analytic processes enable the hypothesis to be eliminated with minimal justifications. These two issues illustrates that the initial approach for countering denial and deception entails generating several deception hypothesis. But the inadequacies of the human reasoning render it impossible to address the possible hypothesis (Richards, 2009).
The second approach of addressing deception and denial entails continuous elimination of the deception hypothesis, through disconfirming evidence. The results indicate cognitively manageable hypothesis size of between five and seven (Richards, 2009). Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) involves using available information as evidentiary elements, against the hypothesis. For each evidence-analysis hypothesis, determination must be done for confirmatory or dis-confirmatory reasons.
Through quantifying the complexities involved in deception and denial challenges, decision makers can adequately understand the complexities of the problem. The knowledge enables the calibration of the efforts required to address the problems, and the confidence needed for problem assessments (James & Nofi, 2011). The metrics enables communities to determine the efforts required for solving the problem and related challenges. For instance, if the problem entails approximately 100 billion likely deceptions, then the solution will be based on the analysis of several hundred approaches or alternatives.
Dunnigan, James and Albert, Nofi. Victory & Deceit: Dirty Tricks at War. New York: Quill William Morrow, 2011. Print.
Heuer, Richards. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Washington DC: CIA, 2009. Print.